Mike Arrington writes about the ugly place that Silicon Valley has (once again) become now that stupid loads of venture capital have been flooding in for the last two years or so.
Ugliness / greed aside, this particular bubble (if it is one) is interesting. One could look at boom / bust cycles as a matter of exuberance vs. boredom. The last time it all came crashing down, I personally believe, is that people just got bored. Sure, all of the petfood.com stories turned the entire era into a joke but there was, as we must acknowledge, an incredible amount of innovation that occurred. Then all the money went away and the engineers got back to what they do best.
In the following years, innovative services like Flickr, del.icio.us, Wikipedia and, of course, Google were developed. Much of the innovation that we hear about today happened during the downturn years between 2001-2004. If this cycle is indeed nearing an end, I wonder how long it can possibly last. We are just on the cusp of what will be an entirely new generation of technology-driven innovation and services — everything from scalable, interesting virtual reality to major, disruptive (at last) in human-computer interfaces — and it makes me seriously doubt that this next downturn will last long at all.
We are also faced with a set of serious crises - namely, the effects of global climate change and disgusting food / farming practices - in the next 10-20 years. Say what you will, and I certainly have, of that capitalist optimism (some would say delusion) in the face of adversity there is something about crisis that brings out a lot of talent and enthusiasm for making things better.
Finally, back in the internet / tech realm - a lot of the core technologies we rely on today are getting a little long in the tooth. Consider email. Does anyone think that we will be messaging one another using the same tired old protocols and client interfaces 20 years from now? It’s past time for revolutionary thinking about how we do not just email but web servers, operating systems, HCI, and data management.
Here’s to the next downturn.
